Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
